Thirteen Predictions for AI and the World

On November 5th, I spoke at T-Mobile's data conference. My talk focused on the following topic:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future… Yet, it’s absolutely true when it comes to AI that people tend to overestimate what it can achieve in the short term and severely underestimate what we can expect in the long term. So, let’s take a probabilistic look at what we can say about AI in the next 5-10 years, based on prediction markets – one of the best superforecasting tools we have. We will also touch on the OpenAI o1 model and answer whether GenAI is just hype (spoiler: yes), what’s coming after it, the balance of risks and benefits, and what Nassim Taleb has to say about it.”